Taiwan and the Next US President
by John Copper
Sunday, Jul 15, 2007, Page 8
During the last few weeks, the US presidential candidates have been
debating and setting out their positions on important issues. In doing
so, their views on both domestic and foreign policies have become
clearer.
But they have said little about Taiwan. In fact, former American
Institute in Taiwan director Raymond Burghardt has pointed out that
none of the candidates has voiced an opinion on Taiwan and probably
won't. In other words, Taiwan is not going to be an issue in the coming
US election.
Not exactly true. While the candidates have not set forth a position on
the "Taiwan issue," it is possible to glean something about their
stances. They have talked about Taiwan before and one can guess how
each might treat Taiwan as president.
As a general assumption, Republican candidates are better for Taiwan
than Democrats. Most republican candidates see China as a military
challenge or even a threat to the US and therefore view a separate
Taiwan as an asset to the US. They are thus more likely to defend
Taiwan in the event that China employs military force to seize it.
Democratic candidates as a whole are anti-war and don't favor the use
of the military. The last Democrat to run for president, Senator John
Kerry, said he would not, if elected, order the US military into action
to defend Taiwan.
Democratic candidates are tougher on China on economic issues. They
want to pressure China to revalue the yuan and advocate tariffs or
other punitive means to fix the huge trade deficit the US has with
China, which exceeded US$300 billion last year.
But economic sanctions against China would also hurt Taiwan since a
large portion of China's exports come from Taiwan-owned or run
companies there.
Democrats generally don't seem to mind. They don't heed the views of
many economists that the US trade deficit cannot be corrected by China
revaluing its currency or by tariffs and that the US instead needs to
increase savings and investment and cut taxes and regulations. Their
policies are essentially protectionist, which would be harmful to the
global economy upon which Taiwan depends.
In contrast, Republicans advocate free trade and would deal with
China's trade offensive on a case-by-case basis -- for example, dealing
with China's subsidies and violations of intellectual property rights
each as an issue itself or by trying to strengthen the US economy and
export more.
Among Democrats, Senator Hillary Clinton would probably be best for
Taiwan. She has taken a harder stance toward China on various issues,
though noticeably more on economic ones. She has been a strong critic
of human rights abuses in China and more supportive of the use of US
military power.
Senator Barack Obama doesn't have much of a record on US China and
Taiwan issues. Recently, in a speech in Congress, he said he favors a
peaceful resolution of Taiwan issue and opposes a unilateral change in
the status quo. The former has long been US policy. The latter seems
almost a quote from US President George W. Bush. Obama has sounded
tough on China on economic issues, but has not been specific.
Former senator John Edwards would probably be the worst Democratic
candidate for Taiwan. He is the furthest left on the political spectrum
and talks more strongly against the use of US military force than other
Democrats. Presumably, like Kerry before him, he may choose not to use
US forces to protect Taiwan.
It is difficult to discern which Republican candidate would be best for Taiwan.
Leading Republicans have all taken a stance that translates into the US
having a national interest in Taiwan, seeing it as sovereign and
needing to protect it.
When he was mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani told Chen when he visited
the city in 2001 that Taiwan is a "remarkable country." He recently
opposed Hillary Clinton limiting Chinese ownership of US debt and
thinks the US should deal with the trade deficit with China by building
more competitive industries and exporting.
Senator John McCain has been the strongest on defense among Republican
candidates and on keeping US forces in East Asia that protect Taiwan.
He supports the Pentagon's "hedge" policy against China's growing
military influence in the region. Thus, he stands strong for defending
Taiwan.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has taken a strong stance on
defense and favors defending Taiwan. There is no reason to think he
would not do that. However, he has not said much about Taiwan.
Former senator Fred Thompson, who isn't officially a candidate but
ranks high in the polls, has said bluntly that the US is obligated to
defend Taiwan. He told his constituency when he was in the Senate that
if he were to decide, he would protect Taiwan.
Newt Gingrich has also taken a tough stand on the issue of protecting
Taiwan and preserving its sovereignty. He has spoken often about
Taiwan's importance.
All of the candidates, Democrats and Republicans, have enunciated a
positive view of Taiwan's democracy. But this is less important than
the matter of whether the US will protect Taiwan. The point is that
Taiwan's political system doesn't matter if it is absorbed by China.
In coming months, it is difficult to conceive of Taiwan not becoming an
issue in the US presidential campaign. It has been in every campaign
for more than half a century.
Military strategists see the Taiwan Strait as the world's number one
flashpoint. The US and a fast rising China differ on Taiwan's future
and that is an issue worth debating.
John Copper is a professor of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee.
(well, i am going to triple check on Wednesday... but at this point... it's no more.. cause i don't even have tickets on hold anymore....AND thank Goodness I didn't pay for them.. that would have Sucked biiiiig time!)
I don't get it. I mean, I guess it's a good sign, that they haven't just come out point blank and said... no, we regret at this time... blah blah blah...
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